Future value

2022년 11월 15일 화요일

Real estate tax and rent increase research results (1)

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the principle of transfer and consequence of taxes

It's a real study of.

A study found that if the landlord's home ownership tax increases by more than 1%, the monthly rent of tenants will rise by 0.06% the following year.

Analysts say that if the landlord's comprehensive real estate tax rises by 3.32 million won per year, the rent paid by the tenant will also rise by 200,000 won per year

The institute analyzed data from 22 OECD countries, including Korea, for 20 years from 2000 to 2020.

After selecting data such as renters' profits, housing ownership taxes, housing prices, and housing demand and supply in each country, it was calculated by introducing the "Houseman and Taylor Estimation Method," an applied statistics analysis technique. As a result, it was concluded that home ownership tax and monthly rent have a 'positive (+) correlation' that increases in proportion.

According to the average survey value of 22 countries, including Korea, if the housing ownership tax increases by more than 1%, the monthly rent of tenants will rise 0.06% the following year.

It is the first time that the holding tax burden is passed on to the monthly rent during a new lease contract, which is the first time that it has revealed common sense or correlation in the real estate market in figures. In other words, 200,000 won per year was transferred to monthly rent.

The comprehensive real estate tax rate is on the rise every year, with 0.5 to 2.0% in 2018 for two houses (adjusted areas) and three or more houses, 0.6 to 3.2% in 2019, and 1.2 to 6.0% last year.

The researcher argued that it is 구로셔츠룸 difficult to transfer the burden of raising the comprehensive real estate tax to the jeonse price, but it is likely to be directly proportional as it can relatively easily affect monthly rent with a small amount of money.

Ma Ji-hyun, a senior researcher, pointed out, "The comprehensive real estate tax was introduced to stabilize real estate prices and balanced development of local finances, but the increase in the tax burden is actually causing side effects of transferring taxes to tenants."

Of course, it is the result of research by private researchers, and there may be some bias. (Statistics are intended)

However, it is meaningful that it is the first research result calculated in numbers using statistics from not only Korea but also major countries.

Additionally, on the transfer and consequences of taxes

Let me write down the basics. (Common sense of real estate)

To understand the transposition and consequence of taxes,

First of all, understanding the 'elasticity' of the real estate market

Must be preceded.

1. What is elasticity?

Simply put, a response to a stimulus on the market.

If the response is big compared to the stimulus, it's elastic

If there's less response to the stimulus, it's inelastic

For example, 10% year-on-year supply to the housing market

Let's say you've improved.

신림셔츠룸

If the demand is fixed, then the supply has increased

It's normal for prices to go down.

But the demand is so strong that the price has fallen less?

= an inelastic market

But if interest rates rise and demand decreases further?

= a resilient market

2022년 11월 13일 일요일

Japan Investment & Securities Co., Ltd. Nikkei

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good no matter how hard you try

worried about not getting results

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So now, I'm going to make more strategies

I want to build a sport that has many advantages

It's time to choose.

I also think that these stock prices

And the way to make a deal fun is

I started to find out what was there.

And then the attractiveness of the option deal

I realized that.

A review of Nikkei 255 in the Japanese Investment Stock Exchange

Even if it's you, you can trade options

I can start right now.

I think these transactions are going up

And even the 셔츠룸 decline, it's

That was a good way.

Two-way revenue is now available

A lot of people are challenging themselves

I've come to understand the point.

If the entry barrier is actually high,

Of course it's going to be hard to get started.

But for anyone to challenge,

I feel pressured to make it

It's a part that's been reduced.

2022년 6월 16일 목요일

Nuclear power, renewable energy, and hydrogen

New Cold War System Emerges as a New Challenge to Climate Change

The new Cold War system has intensified since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Responding to climate change, a common goal, requires cooperation between countries, but faces the risk of weakening the promised cooperation due to ongoing conflicts. The worldwide agreed response to climate change can weaken international cooperation by raising trade barriers between both liberal and authoritarian camps. At least in the short term, the move to implement carbon neutrality appears to have slowed.

The concept of energy independence that will be emphasized along with carbon neutrality

Over the past 30 years, trade has been active around the world, increasing their dependence on each other, but the barriers have been rising since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. When selecting the main power source in a country, it is necessary to consider the source of power that enables economic feasibility and stable fuel procurement. Eastern Europe is located inland, so it has introduced fossil fuels mainly from Russia, and the moment of choice is approaching whether to get closer to Russia again or to have full independence from Russia.

The Age of Fossil Fuel Is Not Longer Left

Since fossil fuels cannot be replaced by other fuels for the time being, they are expected to continue at least until the end of the year, including natural gas and coal. However, the continued strength of fossil fuels is rather a factor that lowers economic feasibility, and will lead to the collapse of fossil fuels in the mid to long term. For example, fossil fuels have also lost their competitiveness in terms of economy with renewable energy.

Eastern Europe to Increase Nuclear Power Plants

Europe began to pay attention again in 2020 while reducing nuclear power plants after the Chernobyl accident. Nuclear power under the EU Taxonomy, which was confirmed in February 2022, was included as a sustainable economic activity under certain conditions. And with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, energy independence has emerged, and related arguments are gaining more strength.

Renewable energy, clear mid- to long-term direction

While the unit price of renewable energy continues to fall, the economic feasibility of renewable energy is relatively highlighted due to the sharp rise in raw material prices in 2022. In policy, 1) the EU emphasizes the expansion of renewable energy supply based on RE Power EU, 2) the United States emphasizes the federal government's clear will to invest in renewable energy, and 3) China's commitment to expand renewable energy.

Another. 1

Possibility of being a giant staff. Will the benchmark interest rate go up? What will happen to the stock market today due to mixed trends and Powell's remarks amid concerns over a rate hike?

an economic schedule

① FOMC: On the 15th (local time), the results of the U.S. FOMC meeting will be released early Thursday in Korea. It will be announced whether or not to raise the U.S. benchmark interest rate.

(3 a.m

② MS: Microsoft's 'Explorer 11' will be discontinued today. To access websites that require Explorer 11, it must be opened in 'IE mode' of 'MS Edge'.

The FOMC in June is unpredictable.

A difficult chapter is expected.

Some say that if the market raises 50bp instead of 75bp expected by the market, the market will fall due to disappointment that the Fed will only chase inflation

But do you think that if we raise 100bp, the Fed will respond properly and the market will cheer?

The main cause of the May CPi shock was rising oil prices, which the Fed could not solve.

However, the fact that the expected inflation of Michigan jumped to 3.3 percent in five years, which was maintained at 3 percent, is a burden to the Fed

The Fed wants to raise interest rates because expected inflation is anchoring.

Besides, Friday is your witch's day.

"Closed mixed due to concerns over 75bp interest rate hike amid backlash"

- Index: NASDAQ +0.18% down for the fifth day

*All major indexes hit new 52-week lows again

- Sector: All 9 but IT and energy are down

*Health care for essential consumer goods of the economy's defense-oriented utility

- BIG7: AMZN/META Decline

*MSFT/META/NVDA 52 Weeks New Price

*AAPL +0.67%.. Deutsche Bank slashes target to $175

- Issue item: FDX BAX ORCL EYE NFLX

- Today's ETF: FXI SOCLIT

✔ Major news on Wall Street

Key issue: the Fed's biggest rate hike since 1994. A 75bp rate hike is expected at the FOMC June policy meeting. Investors say the Fed should be firm in the face of soaring inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) called an emergency meeting in bond market turmoil. Interest rates fell on Bloomberg reports that the repurchase of bonds was included in the agenda. China's major economic indicators improved in May. The stock market rose on expectations of economic recovery as real indicators recovered.

Corporate Trends: Apple (AAPL) has agreed a 10-year broadcasting rights agreement with Major League Soccer (MLS) for $2.5 billion. Coinbase (COIN) announced a massive restructuring that would lay off one-fifth of its employees. Snowflake (SNOW) is bullish on the investment view that it is an opportunity to buy Canakord at a low price.

DOW ▼ 30,484.14 (-0.1%)

S&P500 ▲ 3,755.29 (+0.2%)

NASDAQ ▲ 10,904.86 (+0.9%)

RUSS 2K ▼ 1.709.59 (-0.3%)

PHLX Semiconductor Index ▼ 2,704.93 (-4.6%)

[Summary]

* Government bond rates soar, FOMC begins meeting

* Keep an eye on the possibility of a giant step

* Economic indicators: Producer Price Index (PPI) growth rate of 10.8% in May

* 10-year U.S. government bond rate hits 3.45 percent

* Stock market schedule for this week

- 6/15: The second day of the FOMC regular meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve's forecast for the economy, Powell's press conference, May retail sales, May import and export prices index

- 6/16 : Number of weekly new unemployment insurance claimants

- 6/17: Chairman Powell's speech, May industrial production facility utilization, May leading economic index

# Trends in overseas stock markets

- New York Stock Exchange closed mixed on soaring government bond rates and FOMC meeting

- Market participants will begin the Fed meeting, focusing on the extent and timing of the rate hike, while economists expect a possible 75bp rise in June and July respectively

- Economic indicators are good, and producer price index (PPI) growth in May was 10.8% year-on-year, below market expectations

- By sector

The IT sector is strong, while the utility industry is weak

-By category

Twitter (TWTR) rose 0.51% as Musk decided to talk to Twitter employees, Tesla (TSLA) rose +2.39%, and Oracle (ORCL) rose +10.41% due to improved performance in the infrastructure clouding business.

* * S&P500 Winners & Losers

CME Group (-3.39%)

Truist Financial (-0.86%)

Duke Realty (1.85%)

McDonald's (0.12%)

Domino's Pizza (-0.92%)

DOWN

Signature Bank/New York (2.30%)

Caesar Entertainment (-0.63%)

Norwegian Cruise Line Holding (-3.72%)

Penn National Gaming (1.75%)

Carnival (-3.94%)

-52 Weeks: Samsung Electronics, NAVER, SK Telecom, LG Household & Health Care, AmorePacific, Hive, LG Display, Hanon System, Coway, Mirae Asset Securities

-Historical: SK Bioscience, SDBiosensor, Solum, HDC Hyundai Industrial Development, Dong-A ST

✔"Come back after work"…A series of banks open in the evening and Saturday

✔ Musk postpones Tesla AI Day to September 30

✔The prospect of an economic slowdown in the United States has grown.

The CEO of global investment bank Morgan Stanley also thought the risk of an economic recession would be about 30%, but now it is about 50%.

2022년 5월 17일 화요일

테슬라 밸류체인, 엘앤에프 전망 밝다

"All the batteries are the same. No.""Tesla Value Chain" Races LG Ensol and L&F

Korea Economy, May 17, 2022 16:57

"Earning Surprise," which is 23% higher than L&F's consensus

Tesla's Electric Vehicle Production Boosts Performance

L&F, a producer of secondary battery anode materials, and LG Energy Solution, a cell manufacturer, are showing strong performance thanks to surprise performance (earning surprise). Despite unfavorable factors such as rising interest rates and soaring raw material prices, earnings estimates are rising steeply due to increased production by Tesla, a major customer. The valuation of the two companies (the level of stock price compared to performance) is the highest among major Chinese and European companies as well as secondary battery-related stocks in Korea. Nevertheless, the market is paying attention to the rapid growth and differentiated technology of these companies rather than the burden of valuation.

L&F is trading at 237,000 won as of 1:45 p.m. on the 17th, up 2.46%. The company's stock price jumped 37.27% from March 15 to the 16th. During the same period, LG Energy Solution also increased by 11.40%. During this period, the KOSPI fell only 0.95%.

Solid performance is supporting the rise in stock prices. L&F recorded 553.6 billion won and 53 billion won in sales and operating profit in the first quarter, respectively. Operating profit succeeded in turning into a surplus compared to the same period last year and exceeded consensus (average estimate of securities firms) by 23.5%. The operating profit ratio is 9.6%, the highest ever. Earlier, LG Energy Solution also made a surprise performance that its operating profit exceeded the consensus by 58.0% in the first quarter.

Compared to other secondary battery-related stocks, it is evaluated that its performance improvement is outstanding. Earlier, POSCO Chemical and SK I Technology announced their operating profit for the first quarter, which is below the consensus. Among major secondary battery companies, LG Energy Solution, L&F, and SK Innovation (208,000 + 1.46%) have exceeded 20% of earnings surprise rates in the first quarter. Considering that SK Innovation recorded an operating loss of 273.4 billion won in the battery business, in fact, only two companies recorded a large earning surprise.

Tesla is behind LG Energy Solution and L&F's surprise performance.

The secondary battery cathode material made by L&F is supplied to Tesla through LG Energy Solution. Tesla's vehicle production is expected to increase 61 percent year-on-year to 1.5 million vehicles this year.

Although Tesla's plant in Shanghai has been temporarily suspended, analysts say its impact on domestic companies' performance is limited. Kim Jung-hwan, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, said, "LG Energy Solution is estimated to supply cylindrical batteries to Tesla's Berlin and Texas plants, so the profits of domestic related companies will also increase significantly."

Among secondary battery-related stocks, which are representative growth stocks, L&F and EcoProbim are given high valuation. LG & F and LG Energy Solution's 12-month leading share price ratio (PER) is 53.8 times and 85.4 times, respectively. The burden of valuation is higher than other anode material manufacturers EcoProBM (46.4 times) and cell manufacturers Samsung SDI (23.3 times).

Nevertheless, the stock market considers two companies belonging to Tesla's value chain as promising stocks. Kang Dong-jin, a researcher at Hyundai Motor Securities, said, "If all secondary battery-related stocks have shown a good trend, who their customers are will be more important now," adding, "The growth of cell and material companies in Tesla's value chain with a discriminatory business structure and high productivity will be highlighted."

Analysts say that L&F, a cathode material company, is more promising than LG Energy Solution, a cell company. First of all, it is highly likely that Tesla directly supplies NCMA (nickel, cobalt, manganese, and aluminum) cathode materials to its own 4680 batteries. Discussions with three to four customers are also becoming visible, including the establishment of joint venture (JV) with Redwood, a battery recycling company. On the other hand, LG Energy Solutions still has a burden of overhangs (potential sales volume). In July, about 9.96 million shares will be released for six months.

Stock market eyes toward L&F are also rising. Eleven securities firms that released L&F reports on the 16th and 17th raised their target prices at once. Meritz Securities Co. (430,000 won) offered the highest target price. Korea Investment & Securities raised its operating profit forecasts for L&F this year and next year by 140% and 57%, respectively.

2022년 5월 15일 일요일

Focus on rising

How should we pass the chaotic period when prices rise and interest rates rise?

Prices go up and interest rates go up.

We will judge what goes up and focus on what goes up.

It's not the hope, preference, or wish that I have

Build a position on products that lean on the rising structure.

1. Benefits of rising costs

The sector that continues to focus is the area that benefits from rising costs.

It's the industry of journalism, parts, chemistry, etc

It's not easy to maintain a positive perspective in a chaotic situation,

Since Trump, Q (volume of goods) has been on the floor due to "volume of goods that have been shrinking for recent years x demand that has been further dampened by COVID-19."

: I don't know if it's okay to express it in Q, but it's a fundamental approach

: See Seaborne Trade Volume / Growth

P also seems to have ended the supply of cheap Chinese goods (which seemed to last forever).

Q raised his head before P, and now he is looking at a situation where Q is maintained and P is going up further

So it is hoped that old-fashioned industries will rise from the bottom for a long time with both P and Q rising.

2. A sense of awe of survival, perseverance and tenacity

What I trust most about myself in my view is the awe of someone's grit.

19/20 The Crypto Market.

They put everything into it to take root even in that cold atmosphere. I was in awe of the Crypto Pioneers

Now, despite that small demand, I am in awe of the equipment company that managed to manage the company and the team.

: Those companies that have been bottoming out, cutting stakes to survive, to prepare for ESG

It could be like a hero story of a boy cartoon where he overcomes hardships and eventually achieves his goal

But if you think about it, the flow goes over once,

I'm in awe of that grit to survive.

3. Labour

In addition, I think there will be a revaluation of labor and workers that create Output.